Scope and sequence · PE & Health
Playing the Odds
A one-semester course in the mathematics of good decisions: how players, coaches and game-lovers take the highest-percentage shot while keeping the risk of disaster small, told through Pascal and Fermat, Huygens, the Bernoullis, Henry Chadwick, Branch Rickey, Bill James and the analysts who changed every sport.
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What to cover
29 of 30 lessons are MUST COVER. They are tested on the unit tests and exams, or are skills the SAT/ACT relies on. OPTIONAL lessons are enrichment. Do them if time allows. The course is complete when the MUST COVER lessons are done.
Unit 1: Chance: The Mathematics of Uncertainty
- MUST COVER 1.1 The Problem of Points · exam
- MUST COVER 1.2 Counting the Ways · exam
- MUST COVER 1.3 Dice Have No Memory · exam
- MUST COVER 1.4 What Do You Know Now? · exam
- MUST COVER 1.5 The Law of Large Numbers · exam
Unit 2: Expected Value: Weighing Reward and Risk
- MUST COVER 2.1 Huygens and the Value of a Chance · exam
- MUST COVER 2.2 Points per Shot · exam
- MUST COVER 2.3 Same Average, Different Risk · exam
- MUST COVER 2.4 The House Always Wins · exam
- MUST COVER 2.5 Risk of Ruin · exam
Unit 3: The High-Percentage Shot: Sports by the Numbers
- MUST COVER 3.1 Henry Chadwick’s Box Score · exam
- MUST COVER 3.2 Sabermetrics · exam
- MUST COVER 3.3 Shot Quality · exam
- OPTIONAL 3.4 The Shot Chart
- MUST COVER 3.5 Course Management and the Second Serve · exam
Unit 4: Decisions Under Pressure: Coaches and the Odds
- MUST COVER 4.1 Fourth Down · exam
- MUST COVER 4.2 Pulling the Goalie · exam
- MUST COVER 4.3 Keep Them Guessing · exam
- MUST COVER 4.4 Win Probability, Momentum and Regression to the Mean · exam
- MUST COVER 4.5 Playing to Win versus Playing Not to Lose · exam
Unit 5: The Odds at the Game Table
- MUST COVER 5.1 Backgammon: The Race, the Blitz and the Cube · exam
- MUST COVER 5.2 Dice Battles and Board Squares · exam
- MUST COVER 5.3 Chess: Sound and Speculative Sacrifices · exam
- MUST COVER 5.4 Hidden Information: Bridge, Stratego and Battleship · exam
- MUST COVER 5.5 Push Your Luck: Can’t Stop and Yahtzee · exam
Unit 6: Wisdom, Risk and Providence
- MUST COVER 6.1 Life Tables and Seat Belts · exam
- MUST COVER 6.2 Judge the Decision, Not the Result · exam
- MUST COVER 6.3 Traps in Our Thinking · exam
- MUST COVER 6.4 Time and Chance · exam
- MUST COVER 6.5 Capstone: Your Odds Report · exam
36-week pacing calendar
This is a 20-week course. Pair it with another course in the same subject, or spread it over the year at a lighter pace.
| Week | Plan | Done | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | Day 1: Lesson 1.1 The Problem of Points: video, teaching and worked examples Day 2: Lesson 1.1: project and notebook Day 3: Lesson 1.1: practice set and corrections Day 4: Lesson 1.2 Counting the Ways: video, teaching and worked examples Day 5: Lesson 1.2: project and notebook | ||
| Wk 2 | Day 1: Lesson 1.2: practice set and corrections Day 2: Lesson 1.3 Dice Have No Memory: video, teaching and worked examples Day 3: Lesson 1.3: project and notebook Day 4: Lesson 1.3: practice set and corrections Day 5: Lesson 1.4 What Do You Know Now?: video, teaching and worked examples | ||
| Wk 3 | Day 1: Lesson 1.4: project and notebook Day 2: Lesson 1.4: practice set and corrections Day 3: Lesson 1.5 The Law of Large Numbers: video, teaching and worked examples Day 4: Lesson 1.5: project and notebook Day 5: Lesson 1.5: practice set and corrections | ||
| Wk 4 | Day 1: Unit 1 test Day 2: Lesson 2.1 Huygens and the Value of a Chance: video, teaching and worked examples Day 3: Lesson 2.1: project and notebook Day 4: Lesson 2.1: practice set and corrections Day 5: Lesson 2.2 Points per Shot: video, teaching and worked examples | ||
| Wk 5 | Day 1: Lesson 2.2: project and notebook Day 2: Lesson 2.2: practice set and corrections Day 3: Lesson 2.3 Same Average, Different Risk: video, teaching and worked examples Day 4: Lesson 2.3: project and notebook Day 5: Lesson 2.3: practice set and corrections | ||
| Wk 6 | Day 1: Lesson 2.4 The House Always Wins: video, teaching and worked examples Day 2: Lesson 2.4: project and notebook Day 3: Lesson 2.4: practice set and corrections Day 4: Lesson 2.5 Risk of Ruin: video, teaching and worked examples Day 5: Lesson 2.5: project and notebook | ||
| Wk 7 | Day 1: Lesson 2.5: practice set and corrections Day 2: Unit 2 test Day 3: Lesson 3.1 Henry Chadwick’s Box Score: video, teaching and worked examples Day 4: Lesson 3.1: project and notebook Day 5: Lesson 3.1: practice set and corrections | ||
| Wk 8 | Day 1: Lesson 3.2 Sabermetrics: video, teaching and worked examples Day 2: Lesson 3.2: project and notebook Day 3: Lesson 3.2: practice set and corrections Day 4: Lesson 3.3 Shot Quality: video, teaching and worked examples Day 5: Lesson 3.3: project and notebook | ||
| Wk 9 | Day 1: Lesson 3.3: practice set and corrections Day 2: Lesson 3.4 The Shot Chart: video, teaching and worked examples Day 3: Lesson 3.4: project and notebook Day 4: Lesson 3.4: practice set and corrections Day 5: Lesson 3.5 Course Management and the Second Serve: video, teaching and worked examples | ||
| Wk 10 | Day 1: Lesson 3.5: project and notebook Day 2: Lesson 3.5: practice set and corrections Day 3: Unit 3 test Day 4: Review day for the midterm Day 5: Midterm exam | ||
| Wk 11 | Day 1: Lesson 4.1 Fourth Down: video, teaching and worked examples Day 2: Lesson 4.1: project and notebook Day 3: Lesson 4.1: practice set and corrections Day 4: Lesson 4.2 Pulling the Goalie: video, teaching and worked examples Day 5: Lesson 4.2: project and notebook | ||
| Wk 12 | Day 1: Lesson 4.2: practice set and corrections Day 2: Lesson 4.3 Keep Them Guessing: video, teaching and worked examples Day 3: Lesson 4.3: project and notebook Day 4: Lesson 4.3: practice set and corrections Day 5: Lesson 4.4 Win Probability, Momentum and Regression to the Mean: video, teaching and worked examples | ||
| Wk 13 | Day 1: Lesson 4.4: project and notebook Day 2: Lesson 4.4: practice set and corrections Day 3: Lesson 4.5 Playing to Win versus Playing Not to Lose: video, teaching and worked examples Day 4: Lesson 4.5: project and notebook Day 5: Lesson 4.5: practice set and corrections | ||
| Wk 14 | Day 1: Unit 4 test Day 2: Lesson 5.1 Backgammon: The Race, the Blitz and the Cube: video, teaching and worked examples Day 3: Lesson 5.1: project and notebook Day 4: Lesson 5.1: practice set and corrections Day 5: Lesson 5.2 Dice Battles and Board Squares: video, teaching and worked examples | ||
| Wk 15 | Day 1: Lesson 5.2: project and notebook Day 2: Lesson 5.2: practice set and corrections Day 3: Lesson 5.3 Chess: Sound and Speculative Sacrifices: video, teaching and worked examples Day 4: Lesson 5.3: project and notebook Day 5: Lesson 5.3: practice set and corrections | ||
| Wk 16 | Day 1: Lesson 5.4 Hidden Information: Bridge, Stratego and Battleship: video, teaching and worked examples Day 2: Lesson 5.4: project and notebook Day 3: Lesson 5.4: practice set and corrections Day 4: Lesson 5.5 Push Your Luck: Can’t Stop and Yahtzee: video, teaching and worked examples Day 5: Lesson 5.5: project and notebook | ||
| Wk 17 | Day 1: Lesson 5.5: practice set and corrections Day 2: Unit 5 test Day 3: Lesson 6.1 Life Tables and Seat Belts: video, teaching and worked examples Day 4: Lesson 6.1: project and notebook Day 5: Lesson 6.1: practice set and corrections | ||
| Wk 18 | Day 1: Lesson 6.2 Judge the Decision, Not the Result: video, teaching and worked examples Day 2: Lesson 6.2: project and notebook Day 3: Lesson 6.2: practice set and corrections Day 4: Lesson 6.3 Traps in Our Thinking: video, teaching and worked examples Day 5: Lesson 6.3: project and notebook | ||
| Wk 19 | Day 1: Lesson 6.3: practice set and corrections Day 2: Lesson 6.4 Time and Chance: video, teaching and worked examples Day 3: Lesson 6.4: project and notebook Day 4: Lesson 6.4: practice set and corrections Day 5: Lesson 6.5 Capstone: Your Odds Report: video, teaching and worked examples | ||
| Wk 20 | Day 1: Lesson 6.5: project and notebook Day 2: Lesson 6.5: practice set and corrections Day 3: Unit 6 test Day 4: Review day for the final Day 5: Final exam | ||
| Wk 21 | Open week: second course, project or review | ||
| Wk 22 | Open week: second course, project or review | ||
| Wk 23 | Open week: second course, project or review | ||
| Wk 24 | Open week: second course, project or review | ||
| Wk 25 | Open week: second course, project or review | ||
| Wk 26 | Open week: second course, project or review | ||
| Wk 27 | Open week: second course, project or review | ||
| Wk 28 | Open week: second course, project or review | ||
| Wk 29 | Open week: second course, project or review | ||
| Wk 30 | Open week: second course, project or review | ||
| Wk 31 | Open week: second course, project or review | ||
| Wk 32 | Open week: second course, project or review | ||
| Wk 33 | Open week: second course, project or review | ||
| Wk 34 | Open week: second course, project or review | ||
| Wk 35 | Open week: second course, project or review | ||
| Wk 36 | Open week: second course, project or review |
Grading: Practice sets (completed and corrected) 15%, Projects (data, analysis, decision) 25%, Scorebook (organization, honesty, completeness) 10%, Unit tests 30%, Midterm exam 10%, Final exam 10%. Scale: A 90–100, B 80–89, C 70–79, D 60–69, F below 60.